2018 is Half Gone

Hard to believe how fast this year is passing by. US Large cap stocks, Gold, Non-US stocks, and TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) are all trending down over the last six months or so. Small cap US stocks is the only asset class that is trending up for the first six months of the year.

Gold is down the most so far this year, of all five asset classes. It is bouncing today, but down about 4.8% YTD. The S&P is up 2% or so YTD.

You may ask “How are large cap US stocks trending down when we are up 2% on the year”? Well I’m glad you asked! I use the linear regression slope (a statistical way of determining the trend) of the weekly open, high, low, and close going back about six months. And, don’t forget, the S&P-500 was up 10% or so at the end of January. It has given back most of those gains since then, with a bumpy ride along the way.

So there you have it … a definitely “half empty” kind of mid-year report card.

Our economic fundamentals are starting to fade, and the tariffs on imports from China, Europe and elsewhere are making investors cautious.

We are holding 15% in cash and our biggest position is in the smaller US stocks.

Have a great 4th of July.