I plan to get the performance reports out by Monday’s close of business. Before that, I’m getting the historical backtest models updated, so we can see how we’re doing vs. the theoretical models pertaining to each of you. I want to determine how much the overweighting in the precious metals and the miners has affected portfolio performance.
There’s no question in my mind that when the miners take off again, they will provide a huge lift, but the ride has been bumpy.
Look for something this coming Monday.Read More
Interesting, after the Fed increases it’s balance sheet hugely, and the US dollar drops 25% from where it was during that 2008 crash, that Gold Mining Stocks are back to where they were then! So, in spite of the fact we have excluded Gold and Gold mining stocks from our allocation as they fell, I am re-opening positions in GDX in our portfolios, based on the volatility driven asset allocation methodology we use (this means a very small position). I’m not trying to have perfect timing… but it doesn’t make sense that these stocks should be at prices as low as they were...Read More
Take a good look at this PBS program. While listening, please be aware that, at Portfolio Wisdom: We are a fiduciary, legally required to put your interests first. Your broker, insurance agent, and 401k advisor are probably not held to that high legal standard. Industry lobbyists have defeated every attempt to hold the big financial firms accountable in this way; As a Registered Investment Advisor (RIA) we can, and do, actually actively manage client 401k’s for them on a fee-only (no-commission) basis. Your broker, insurance agent, or 401k provider do not. They are sometimes actually...Read More
Well, Gold and Silver have dropped about 7-8% since we sold. Stocks have fallen 2-3%, so, for the more aggressive clients, I put some cash back to work over the last two days. The markets do not look like they are going to completely break down right now. However, we are still holding a fair amount of cash for the Balanced accounts and the more conservative accounts. If we could just get a really nice 15% drop in stocks, I would gladly go back to the portfolio models Have a great weekend....Read More
I’m on vacation this week, but I spent the morning watching Ben Bernanke’s testimony on TV because I wanted to hear what he says about the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) manipulation by Barclays Bank (and others), ongoing since 2008. This thing reminds me of the initial news in 2007 that a couple of hedge funds in Europe had closed because they didn’t know what their holdings were worth. That news was apparently ignored by the markets, but was the first overt indication of the coming financial armageddon. I don’t like what he said, and I don’t like the...Read More
Seems like a silly question to ask, but bear with me for a moment. Any knucklehead mutual fund salesman or “advisor” can show you a hypothetical illustration with a better historical track record than the one you have (or the one his own clients have). All he has to do is go through the thousands of choices and pick one to show you that looks good. If you ever see an illustration like that from an “advisor”, ask if he recommended that investment to any of his clients five years ago. Then ask him to show you several proposals he made to clients several years ago....Read More