How to Build and Manage a Portfolio

Step by Step instructions, as well as FAQ’s (Frequently Asked Questions) on building and managing your portfolio using our tools and approach.

Sticking to the Cautious Plan

Posted by on Jul 27, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Hey everyone… I’ve been trying to take some time off this week, but have been watching the markets. I’m sticking to the cautious plan laid out over the last few weeks. We raised quite a bit of cash, then reinvested in bonds and real assets, keeping about 30% in cash. Today, we’re adding to the Facebook shares at a bargain price to get back to our 2% target. As the stock fluctuates up and down, we sell when it goes up and buy when it drops to keep the allocation at about 2% of the portfolio’s. In the long-term, I’m very comfortable ignoring the pundits. Let me know if you have any questions. I’ve also added a hedge against a sudden market drop using the inverse S&P500 fund (Symbol SH). That may be more technical than many care to know, but I just wanted to you to know we’re holding steady and staying cautious....

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This LIBOR Thing Bothers Me a Great Deal

Posted by on Jul 17, 2012 in Current Model Portfolio Allocations, Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

I’m on vacation this week, but I spent the morning watching Ben Bernanke’s testimony on TV because I wanted to hear what he says about the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) manipulation by Barclays Bank (and others), ongoing since 2008. This thing reminds me of the initial news in 2007 that a couple of hedge funds in Europe had closed because they didn’t know what their holdings were worth. That news was apparently ignored by the markets, but was the first overt indication of the coming financial armageddon. I don’t like what he said, and I don’t like the way he evaded questions from Congress about why he and the Fed did not expose this problem when they knew about it. I think this stinks. Essentially, it seems that big bankers lied about the true interest rate transactions occurring in order to under or overstate LIBOR interest rates to benefit trading positions held by, you guessed it, big banks. Our Fed and our regulators knew about this for years, but never blew the whistle, although they claim to have been working behind the scenes with European regulators to try fixing the problem. My personal opinion is that they cut the banks some slack because they did not want any more of them to fail, thus further damaging the flawed financial system. In other words, the ends justified the means. The possible implications are far reaching and market reactions to this kind of thing are unpredictable. Markets might depart from normal behavior in some drastic move. So, for the second time this year I have raised a lot of cash in client accounts to wait and see how this all plays out. I’m not predicting a crash, but the risks of it happening in my view, are very real. My primary job for you, as I see it, is managing risk and avoiding a big hit to your life savings. Sometimes I will appear to be too cautious, and miss opportunities when the market shrugs off my concerns. That’s OK with me. If you, however, are still far from retirement and want me to be more aggressive with your accounts, please let me know directly. I can put your money back to work right away and let you ride things out. As always, thanks so much for your...

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Question from a PortfolioWisdom App Owner

Posted by on Jul 10, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Below is a question from someone who is using the PortfolioWisdom App along with my answer. I hope everyone finds it informative and useful. Dale On Jul 10, 2012, at 10:09 AM, AC wrote: Dale, I have become a recent fan of your investing philosophy and have recently subscribed to your excellent mobile app.  I have experimented quite a bit with entering different profiles into the app.  I realize that your methodology for asset allocation is your proprietary secret sauce, but would love a little more insight into what metrics you use to dynamically adjust the allocations over time, if you are willing to share it.  I also have a specific question about the app: I have noticed there seem to be three different basic portfolios, based on portfolio size, consisting of either 6, 9 or 12 funds.  The charts that then appear when selecting a risk tolerance seem to indicate that the portfolio with only 6 funds has had better overall returns than those of 9 or 12 funds each.  Is this correct, or am I interpreting the charts wrong? Thanks, A Dear A, Thanks for the kind words. I’m really happy you are finding the PortfolioWisdom app helpful. You made my day! Regarding your question, you may note that the 6 asset portfolio shows a better risk adjusted theoretical backtest return over the last 5 years than the 9 and 12 asset portfolios, but look at the components of the portfolio models. The six asset model has three different bond ETF’s (of 6 for 50%), while the 9 asset model has 4 (of 9) bond ETF’s and the 12 asset model has 5 (of 12) bond ETF’s. So, the six asset model is marginally more conservative (think about smaller investors with smaller portfolios) than the other models. Because it is more “bond weighted”, it has done better over the last 5 years, since bonds have generally been better than stocks. Obviously, in “good” times for stocks and real assets, the reverse would be true.   Regarding the “secret sauce”, I’m in the process of writing a book about my methodology and hope to publish it on Amazon later this Summer, along with a spreadsheet showing a simpler version more geared to 401k investors. The specific formulas I’ve developed will be “locked down”, but I intend for people to be able to try different assets and customize their portfolios somewhat.   In the meantime, here are a couple of nuggets. My underlying philosophy is that the markets are not inherently predictable or “time-able” in the short run of 2- 6 weeks (or maybe even for the next 1-3 months). So, my concept is based on the idea of developing a portfolio that allocates assets so the the inherent financial risk of each asset class is roughly equal to that of all the other asset classes in the portfolio. From the basis of that theoretical “equal risk” portfolio, I can then make intelligent decisions about over or underweighting the various asset classes, based on current asset class behavior and the risk tolerance of the investor, thus producing the different model portfolios. Implementation of that concept was tricky, and took me about two years of experimentation, because I needed to develop my own proprietary measure of “financial risk” for an asset class and another for a portfolio, and then my own algorithm for balancing that risk over time as asset behavior changes.   But, it works because it is based on some fundamental behaviors of multiple financial markets that have not appreciably changed over 300 years.   I hope this...

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The Futility of Prediction Investing

Posted by on Jun 29, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

If you had been asked to bet your portfolio on what would happen in the markets this last Monday, what would you have done? Listening to CNBC, Bloomberg, and everyone else on TV, most would have either bet the markets would collapse or just gone into cash to “wait it out”. Today, there is a new announcement in Europe and there is a huge rally in stocks. Bonds are down, but not overly so. Real assets are up even more than stocks, presumably because the financial engineering in Europe is perceived to devalue paper currencies, especially the Euro. If you had predicted a big rally, and bet the ranch, you would have been right and be making money. If you had predicted more trouble this week, you would be losing or sitting on the sidelines feeling lousy. Because we stuck to our discipline, we weren’t scared out of the markets when Monday’s plunge occurred, and we are here to benefit by today’s rally. Very few people other than God really know what the future holds, and they are not talking on TV. The moral of this story is… don’t let the news push you into bad investment decisions based on predictions about what will happen. Find a proven investment discipline you can hold to, and turn off the...

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Diversification is a Beautiful Thing

Posted by on Jun 15, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Well, how about that?  I’m sitting here looking at the screen which shows our portfolios have gained over 1% since last Friday, when we went completely back into our portfolio models. Here’s the amazing part… the S&P500 is close to where it was a week ago, but just about all the other asset classes have gained. The biggest contributors? Non-US government bonds! … followed by some holdings in real assets. This development goes to show us at least three things: Prediction is a losing way to invest… we could never have predicted this even a week ago, Our methodology works … as volatility in those asset classes subsided, we were gradually increasing our positions in those asset classes … even as the news was calling for the end of the world, and Diversification is a beautiful thing!  If we had not been exposed to a broad array of asset classes, we would have missed out. Have a great...

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Returning to Full Investment in the Models

Posted by on Jun 8, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Well, we have had a very good run vs. the markets since mid-April, when I said that “something doesn’t feel right” and raised a great deal of cash. At the time, I said we would gradually move the cash back into the models, which we have been doing. Today, I am putting the last 15%-20% cash back into the models. I am  not making a prediction the markets will now rally… I really don’t know. As I said in an earlier post “Wake Up and Smell the Coffee” , the investment professionals (and successful individual investors, for that matter) are people who have a discipline which keeps them out of the ditch of emotional investing. I have written at length about the other big trap of investing by prediction, which is fraught with peril. We don’t do that either. We have a proven methodology, and since there is no overriding reason (as there was in April) to ignore it, I am going back to the methodology that has been successful for us in the past. The markets may go up and they may go down, but we are not going to be greedy or fearful. We will stick to our plan. Have a great...

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