How to Build Your Portfolio Using Our Tools

“OK”, you say, “How do I do this?” Well, here are the basic steps… each with a link to a more detailed explanation of who, what, how, and when. Basically, using model portfolios, I plan to show what to buy, how much of it to buy, and when and how much to sell. I plan to update that information periodically, usually weekly, so you can have current information on which to base your decisions.

Before we start, keep in mind that portfolio wisdom.com does not know about your individual situation. You may need to modify this approach based on your current life situation. If you do not have sufficient cash in accessible savings for emergencies, you may need to choose a more conservative model, or keep your funds out of the markets altogether. Please read the disclaimers about our models.  Over time, they have worked well for others and should work well for you, but, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification is no guarantee of profits. Also, markets change… these models may work better or worse over the next few years than they did in the last five years.

I believe in these models and use them, but they are for your general information and not to be construed as investment advice specific to you. OK?  Here goes…

Step One – Choose your portfolio model by assessing your risk tolerance.

Step Two – Choose your investment vehicles if they are not already chosen (as in your 401k).

Step Three – Choose a Custodian (discount broker) if one has not already been chosen, and open and fund your account.

Step Four – Invest your money according to your chosen (and modified) model … either all at once or gradually … your choice.

Step Five – Rebalance as needed (huh?) … Don’t worry I’ll explain :-) .

TitleDateCategories
No ImagePrechter Predicts a Strong US Dollar and Deflation AheadSeptember 24, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMore Market PainSeptember 12, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMore Storm CloudsSeptember 10, 2014Dale's Market Comments
No ImageDoom and Gloom EverywhereSeptember 9, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTuesday TuesdaySeptember 2, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageModel Portfolio UpdateAugust 25, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhoa! Who Saw That Coming?August 21, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat Will Your Portfolio Do in the Next Bear Market?August 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStocks Continue Sliding, Gold and Bonds are UpAugust 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMarkets Are Looking ShakyJuly 31, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageCheck Out Our New Home Page!July 24, 2014Dale's Market Comments
No ImageDo You Have a Plan for the Next Bear Market in Stocks and Bonds?July 17, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageDon’t Look Now But the US Dollar seems to have dropped about 5% in the last 12 MonthsJune 27, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIt’s 11:35 PM and the Fed Says “All is Well”June 18, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBlankfein – Some Exogenous Event is Going to HappenJune 17, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAre “Exit Fees” Coming for Bond Fund Investors?June 17, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageSo How Bad is Inflation … Really?June 17, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageCNBC: Market close: Stocks slide; worst hit in 3 weeks for Dow, S&P 500June 11, 2014Dale's Market Comments
No ImageDeath of the Dollar Update by Mike MaloneyJune 10, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageCentral Banks Continue to Fight DeflationJune 5, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGold drop is more clear in light of GDPMay 29, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGold and Silver Get Clobbered … for no apparent reasonMay 28, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBarclays Fined for Manipulating Gold PriceMay 23, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIt’s Still a Bull MarketMay 16, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStay Tuned for an Exciting Announcement Coming Very SoonMay 9, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHolding Our Breath NowMay 9, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIs Deflation Going to Win?April 23, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageS&P 500 up 0.36% YTD 2014April 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageUS Dollar is Still DecliningApril 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageA Nice Quarter to Begin 20214April 4, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAre US and International Markets Uncoupling?March 25, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTough Days Offset by Good DaysMarch 24, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTough Day for Our PortfoliosMarch 19, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageRandy Asks for ETF Portfolios like the 401k PortfoliosMarch 18, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePortfolio Wisdom Annual Brochure PublicationMarch 14, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageS&P 500 Back in the Red for 2014March 13, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageLabor Dept. Wants More 401k Plan Fee DisclosuresMarch 12, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThings Look a Little Gloomy TodayMarch 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageUS Dollar Getting HitMarch 6, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhipsaw!March 4, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHow Does the Ukraine Affect Our Investments?March 3, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWe are Fortunate Today in Spite of UkraineMarch 3, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStruggling to Hold New HighsFebruary 26, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStocks and Commodities on the Move UpFebruary 24, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAn Ugly Reversal TodayFebruary 19, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMarkets on Hold … Except for GoldFebruary 14, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageOh the Trends They Are Achangin’February 11, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Fed, the US Treasury, and GoldFebruary 7, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAfter the FallFebruary 4, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStock Market Tumble Today – Dow Down 326February 3, 2014Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAfter 2013 We Have Some Very Happy SubscribersJanuary 29, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter
No ImageBonds and Real Estate are Back in the Newsletter Model PortfoliosJanuary 29, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter
No ImagePortfolios Shifting Towards Bonds? Yes, Bonds.January 28, 2014Dale's Market Comments
No ImageEquity Markets Misbehaving TodayJanuary 24, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat’s Moving Up in the New Year (so far)January 17, 2014Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStocks Clobbered TodayJanuary 13, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHappy New Year! Europe Stocks Seem to be Warming UpJanuary 10, 2014401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHappy Holidays! We are Raising Cash!December 26, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTerrific CNBC Interview on Gold and Commodity SectorDecember 11, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageUS Dollar Taking It On The Chin TodayDecember 5, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHistoric Confidence by TradersDecember 3, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageEnding the Week on a Nice NoteNovember 29, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageUp Again – And a Very Important Lesson I’ve Learned!November 22, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMore Signs of WeaknessNovember 20, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageUS Equity Markets Showing some Signs of WeaknessNovember 18, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhew! Gold and Silver Were Hammered Today!November 12, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMarket ObservationsNovember 12, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageA World Without CommissionsOctober 25, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageVery Nice Rally! But Why?October 22, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIntroducing Three New Variants of the Portfolio Wisdom MethodologyOctober 11, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGold’s plunge blamed on one massive sell orderOctober 11, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHow Can We Believe Any of Them? From a Speech by Senator Obama During the Bush AdministrationOctober 9, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageApproaching High Noon in Washington, D.C.October 8, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageA Quote from Bloomberg about GoldOctober 8, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePerformance Reports Coming Out This WeekendOctober 4, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Current Model Portfolio Allocations Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMining Stocks and Precious Metals Drop HardOctober 1, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePivotal DaysSeptember 30, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGartman says “Even the Government Can’t Ruin This Rally … Buy Stocks”September 27, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIs This the Last Best Buying Opportunity for the Real Assets? Stocks? Bonds?September 18, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageEncouraging Unemployment Numbers! But Wait!September 13, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMiners Drop, Stocks RecoverSeptember 10, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageLightening Up on Precious Metals MinersAugust 27, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageSeven Stages of EmpireAugust 21, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTop Hedge Funds Were Selling Gold and Miners in Q2August 15, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStocks are Up Big, Why Aren’t We? I’m Glad You Asked!August 12, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMiners and Precious Metals LiftoffAugust 12, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageFedtastic!July 31, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGold, Silver, and the Mining Stocks are Starting to Blow My MindJuly 22, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
2013 0718 chartofday rudeawakeningHow Old is the Current US Stock Market Rally Compared to Others Since 1900?July 18, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Mining Stocks Have Had a Nice Little RunJuly 17, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBonds are Trying to StabilizeJuly 17, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhere We Stand at the HalfJuly 5, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageI Don’t Believe in the “Great Rotation” – Watch Out for a Drop in StocksJuly 5, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBonds are CrashingJuly 5, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMoving Back InJune 28, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageInteresting TimesJune 26, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhere Does the US Dollar Go Next?June 20, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageOur Methodology is Raising Cash Today – Things Could Get UglyJune 20, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageI Can’t See the LogicJune 19, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGuess What the “New” Dividend Stocks Are?June 18, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThings Are Getting Crazier – Overweighting Precious MetalsJune 14, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGo Away May, Go AwayJune 6, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Trends They Are AChangin’May 30, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWe Are Near a Sentiment Cycle TopMay 30, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMary Ellen’s Question About GoldMay 17, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNew Improved Portfolio Wisdom MethodologyMay 17, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGold Miner Stock Prices are Back to Where They were in the Winter of 2008!May 10, 2013Current Model Portfolio Allocations Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIs the Fed Taking It’s Foot Off the Gas?May 10, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHow Retirement Fees Cost You – and Why We Use Index ETF’sApril 29, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments
No ImagePBS Documentary – The Retirement Gamble Facing Us AllApril 29, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Current Model Portfolio Allocations
No ImageWe Are Moving From the Metals to the MinersApril 24, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePrecious Metals CrashApril 15, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhere Does the US Dollar Go From Here?April 12, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageEverything Is Up Lately!April 11, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageRolling Market Top? Or New Bull Beginning?April 5, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageVacationMarch 21, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhy Do Successful Investors Choose Fiduciaries?March 14, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageFascinating Run in EquitiesMarch 14, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePutting a Little Cash Back to WorkFebruary 22, 2013Current Model Portfolio Allocations Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMy Personal Story from the Spring of 2000 Before the Dot Com CrashFebruary 13, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWe are Underperforming the US Stock Market! Do Something!February 7, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAn Unexpectedly Nice Start to 2013February 6, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageRay Dalio Interview from CNBCJanuary 31, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNew Book by Jeremy Kisner on What a Good Financial Advisor Will Tell YouJanuary 31, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTrimTabs Reports a Record $55 Billion into Stocks in January 2013January 29, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAsset Allocation for 2013January 23, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageSlow Motion MarketsJanuary 22, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageTaking Chips off the TableJanuary 3, 2013401k / 403b Newsletter Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageFinancial “Advisors” can no longer get commissions in the UK for Investment Products! What a Concept!January 2, 2013Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePretty DisgustingDecember 31, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMerry Christmas!December 24, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNothing New to Report. I’m grateful for you.December 14, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Fiscal CliffNovember 30, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageGratifying to see all our holdings up todayNovember 19, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat are the Trends? Ignore the News, look at the NumbersNovember 16, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHard Assets Bouncing Back!November 6, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageOdd Market Behavior TodayNovember 2, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Bubble is LeakingOctober 25, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat Are Traditional Investment Advisors Studying Now? How to Manage Your Emotions (Rather than Your Investments)October 23, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageManaged Account Client Portfolio UpdateOctober 18, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Day the Dollar DiedOctober 17, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBeware Flashy Historical Performance Numbers!October 16, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNot Much to Write About This WeekOctober 12, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageKyle Bass – He made a fortune during the real estate crash… What he expects nowOctober 5, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNearing a Tipping PointOctober 3, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBill Gross – The Bond King SpeaksOctober 2, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhere Bernanke Wants Us to Invest (and Where We’ll go Instead)September 24, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageI’m Weary of the Fear and the Pessimism, and I Refuse to Absorb It AnymoreSeptember 21, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBernanke Shock and AweSeptember 14, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNew Highs for the Equity Markets (and us)September 7, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageAn Interesting Article by Mr. KassAugust 21, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageVolatility is Historically LowAugust 21, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIntroducing a New S&P500 Sector PortfolioAugust 16, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageI can see clearly now, the rain is goneAugust 16, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBernanke, Draghi and the MarketsAugust 3, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageFacebook – What a $120 Billion Manager Has to SayAugust 2, 2012Dale's Market Comments
No ImageI Just Realized Something Very ImportantJuly 31, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageSticking to the Cautious PlanJuly 27, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNewsletter Allocations for 7/26/2012July 26, 2012401k / 403b Newsletter
No ImageThis LIBOR Thing Bothers Me a Great DealJuly 17, 2012Current Model Portfolio Allocations Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageOur Fee Structure Really is Pretty Unique – Just Ask the Financial TimesJuly 11, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageQuestion from a PortfolioWisdom App OwnerJuly 10, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageInteresting Article About Merrill Lynch’s View of the World MarketsJuly 10, 2012Dale's Market Comments
No ImageA Negative Opinion Based on Economic FundamentalsJuly 9, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat is the Goal of Investing?June 29, 2012Current Model Portfolio Allocations Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Futility of Prediction InvestingJune 29, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageDiversification is a Beautiful ThingJune 15, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageReturning to Full Investment in the ModelsJune 8, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWake Up and Smell the Coffee! Please!June 2, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHow Are the PortfolioWisdom App Users Doing?May 31, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageDang! Wish I had better timing on Facebook!May 29, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWe’re at a Fork in the RoadMay 25, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStill Buying on the Way Down todayMay 18, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageMaybe This is It … But Not to Worry … YetMay 9, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImagePutting Some Cash Back to WorkMay 1, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageSomething Doesn’t Feel RightApril 17, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageVolatility Beginning to IncreaseApril 13, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageIntroducing PortfolioWisdom … the Mobile App!April 6, 2012Dale's Market Comments How to Build and Manage a Portfolio Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageCheck MorningStar for Quarterly Performance ReportsApril 6, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNew York Times OpEd – Leaving Goldman SachsMarch 30, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageHow Does the PortfolioWisdom Methodology Work Over Time?March 27, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageNow Comes the Hard PartMarch 23, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageBack to the ModelMarch 19, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageStill CautiousMarch 9, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageI had to laughFebruary 13, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageThe Most Important ThingJanuary 31, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No ImageWhat does Food have to do with PortfolioWisdom?January 30, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No Image2012 … So Far, So GoodJanuary 19, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No Image2011 Q4 Performance Reports are AvailableJanuary 4, 2012Dale's Market Comments Portfolio Wisdom Blogs
No Image2011′s Been Quite a YearDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image9/22/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image9/21/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image8/10/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image8/1/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image7/27/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image6/22/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image4/25/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image2/7/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image2/3/2011 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image11/4/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image10/9/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image7/27/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image5/9/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image5/6/2010 Historical Post – The flash crashDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image2/3/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image01/19/2010 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image12/17/2009 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image11/18/2009 Historical PostDecember 22, 2011Dale's Market Comments
portfoliowisdom logoAnnouncing Free Asset Allocation Help / Education!November 30, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No ImageCurrent Model Portfolio Allocations are posted for 11/25/11November 27, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No ImageAccess to your Morningstar Reports from PortfolioWisdom.comNovember 19, 2011Dale's Market Comments
portfoliowisdom logoMarket IndecisionNovember 16, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No ImageCurrent Model Portfolio AllocationsNovember 12, 2011Current Model Portfolio Allocations
portfoliowisdom logoVolatility Slowly Decreasing?November 12, 2011Dale's Market Comments
No Image5. Rebalance as needed (huh?) … Don’t worry I’ll explain :-)November 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No Image4.Invest your money according to your chosen (and modified) model … either all at once or gradually … your choiceNovember 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No Image3. Choose a Custodian (discount broker) if one has not already been chosen, and open and fund your account.November 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No Image2. Choose your investment vehicles if they are not already chosen (as in your 401k)November 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
portfoliowisdom logo1. Choose your portfolio model by assessing your risk toleranceNovember 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
No ImageHow to Build Your Portfolio Using Our ToolsNovember 5, 2011How to Build and Manage a Portfolio
portfoliowisdom logoThings look riskyNovember 4, 2011Dale's Market Comments

FacebookTwitterGoogle+Share

Sticking to the Cautious Plan

Posted by on Jul 27, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Hey everyone… I’ve been trying to take some time off this week, but have been watching the markets. I’m sticking to the cautious plan laid out over the last few weeks. We raised quite a bit of cash, then reinvested in bonds and real assets, keeping about 30% in cash. Today, we’re adding to the Facebook shares at a bargain price to get back to our 2% target. As the stock fluctuates up and down, we sell when it goes up and buy when it drops to keep the allocation at about 2% of the portfolio’s. In the long-term, I’m very comfortable ignoring the pundits. Let me know if you have any questions. I’ve also added a hedge against a sudden market drop using the inverse S&P500 fund (Symbol SH).

That may be more technical than many care to know, but I just wanted to you to know we’re holding steady and staying cautious.

Thanks!

This LIBOR Thing Bothers Me a Great Deal

Posted by on Jul 17, 2012 in Current Model Portfolio Allocations, Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

I’m on vacation this week, but I spent the morning watching Ben Bernanke’s testimony on TV because I wanted to hear what he says about the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) manipulation by Barclays Bank (and others), ongoing since 2008. This thing reminds me of the initial news in 2007 that a couple of hedge funds in Europe had closed because they didn’t know what their holdings were worth. That news was apparently ignored by the markets, but was the first overt indication of the coming financial armageddon.

I don’t like what he said, and I don’t like the way he evaded questions from Congress about why he and the Fed did not expose this problem when they knew about it. I think this stinks. Essentially, it seems that big bankers lied about the true interest rate transactions occurring in order to under or overstate LIBOR interest rates to benefit trading positions held by, you guessed it, big banks. Our Fed and our regulators knew about this for years, but never blew the whistle, although they claim to have been working behind the scenes with European regulators to try fixing the problem. My personal opinion is that they cut the banks some slack because they did not want any more of them to fail, thus further damaging the flawed financial system. In other words, the ends justified the means.

The possible implications are far reaching and market reactions to this kind of thing are unpredictable. Markets might depart from normal behavior in some drastic move. So, for the second time this year I have raised a lot of cash in client accounts to wait and see how this all plays out. I’m not predicting a crash, but the risks of it happening in my view, are very real.

My primary job for you, as I see it, is managing risk and avoiding a big hit to your life savings. Sometimes I will appear to be too cautious, and miss opportunities when the market shrugs off my concerns. That’s OK with me.

If you, however, are still far from retirement and want me to be more aggressive with your accounts, please let me know directly. I can put your money back to work right away and let you ride things out.

As always, thanks so much for your trust.

Question from a PortfolioWisdom App Owner

Posted by on Jul 10, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Below is a question from someone who is using the PortfolioWisdom App along with my answer. I hope everyone finds it informative and useful.
Dale
On Jul 10, 2012, at 10:09 AM, AC wrote:
Dale,

I have become a recent fan of your investing philosophy and have recently subscribed to your excellent mobile app.  I have experimented quite a bit with entering different profiles into the app.  I realize that your methodology for asset allocation is your proprietary secret sauce, but would love a little more insight into what metrics you use to dynamically adjust the allocations over time, if you are willing to share it.  I also have a specific question about the app:

I have noticed there seem to be three different basic portfolios, based on portfolio size, consisting of either 6, 9 or 12 funds.  The charts that then appear when selecting a risk tolerance seem to indicate that the portfolio with only 6 funds has had better overall returns than those of 9 or 12 funds each.  Is this correct, or am I interpreting the charts wrong?

Thanks,
A

Dear A,

Thanks for the kind words. I’m really happy you are finding the PortfolioWisdom app helpful. You made my day!

Regarding your question, you may note that the 6 asset portfolio shows a better risk adjusted theoretical backtest return over the last 5 years than the 9 and 12 asset portfolios, but look at the components of the portfolio models. The six asset model has three different bond ETF’s (of 6 for 50%), while the 9 asset model has 4 (of 9) bond ETF’s and the 12 asset model has 5 (of 12) bond ETF’s. So, the six asset model is marginally more conservative (think about smaller investors with smaller portfolios) than the other models. Because it is more “bond weighted”, it has done better over the last 5 years, since bonds have generally been better than stocks. Obviously, in “good” times for stocks and real assets, the reverse would be true.
 
Regarding the “secret sauce”, I’m in the process of writing a book about my methodology and hope to publish it on Amazon later this Summer, along with a spreadsheet showing a simpler version more geared to 401k investors. The specific formulas I’ve developed will be “locked down”, but I intend for people to be able to try different assets and customize their portfolios somewhat.
 
In the meantime, here are a couple of nuggets. My underlying philosophy is that the markets are not inherently predictable or “time-able” in the short run of 2- 6 weeks (or maybe even for the next 1-3 months). So, my concept is based on the idea of developing a portfolio that allocates assets so the the inherent financial risk of each asset class is roughly equal to that of all the other asset classes in the portfolio. From the basis of that theoretical “equal risk” portfolio, I can then make intelligent decisions about over or underweighting the various asset classes, based on current asset class behavior and the risk tolerance of the investor, thus producing the different model portfolios. Implementation of that concept was tricky, and took me about two years of experimentation, because I needed to develop my own proprietary measure of “financial risk” for an asset class and another for a portfolio, and then my own algorithm for balancing that risk over time as asset behavior changes.
 
But, it works because it is based on some fundamental behaviors of multiple financial markets that have not appreciably changed over 300 years.
 
I hope this helps.
 
Dale

The Futility of Prediction Investing

Posted by on Jun 29, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

If you had been asked to bet your portfolio on what would happen in the markets this last Monday, what would you have done? Listening to CNBC, Bloomberg, and everyone else on TV, most would have either bet the markets would collapse or just gone into cash to “wait it out”.

Today, there is a new announcement in Europe and there is a huge rally in stocks. Bonds are down, but not overly so. Real assets are up even more than stocks, presumably because the financial engineering in Europe is perceived to devalue paper currencies, especially the Euro.

If you had predicted a big rally, and bet the ranch, you would have been right and be making money. If you had predicted more trouble this week, you would be losing or sitting on the sidelines feeling lousy.

Because we stuck to our discipline, we weren’t scared out of the markets when Monday’s plunge occurred, and we are here to benefit by today’s rally. Very few people other than God really know what the future holds, and they are not talking on TV. The moral of this story is… don’t let the news push you into bad investment decisions based on predictions about what will happen. Find a proven investment discipline you can hold to, and turn off the news.

Diversification is a Beautiful Thing

Posted by on Jun 15, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Well, how about that?  I’m sitting here looking at the screen which shows our portfolios have gained over 1% since last Friday, when we went completely back into our portfolio models. Here’s the amazing part… the S&P500 is close to where it was a week ago, but just about all the other asset classes have gained.

The biggest contributors? Non-US government bonds! … followed by some holdings in real assets.

This development goes to show us at least three things:

  1. Prediction is a losing way to invest… we could never have predicted this even a week ago,
  2. Our methodology works … as volatility in those asset classes subsided, we were gradually increasing our positions in those asset classes … even as the news was calling for the end of the world, and
  3. Diversification is a beautiful thing!  If we had not been exposed to a broad array of asset classes, we would have missed out.

Have a great weekend.

Returning to Full Investment in the Models

Posted by on Jun 8, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Well, we have had a very good run vs. the markets since mid-April, when I said that “something doesn’t feel right” and raised a great deal of cash. At the time, I said we would gradually move the cash back into the models, which we have been doing. Today, I am putting the last 15%-20% cash back into the models. I am  not making a prediction the markets will now rally… I really don’t know. As I said in an earlier post “Wake Up and Smell the Coffee” , the investment professionals (and successful individual investors, for that matter) are people who have a discipline which keeps them out of the ditch of emotional investing. I have written at length about the other big trap of investing by prediction, which is fraught with peril. We don’t do that either.

We have a proven methodology, and since there is no overriding reason (as there was in April) to ignore it, I am going back to the methodology that has been successful for us in the past. The markets may go up and they may go down, but we are not going to be greedy or fearful. We will stick to our plan.

Have a great weekend.

Wake Up and Smell the Coffee! Please!

Posted by on Jun 2, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

In September 2011, an acquaintance expressed concern that one of his smaller accounts was underperforming (losing money) and asked me if he should be more conservative,  just before the market bottomed and rose 25%. In March of 2012, another acquaintance informed me that he felt bullish and implied that he was going to be more aggressive with his account, weeks before the high for 2012. In May 2011, a relatively new acquaintance (who I was trying to gain as a client) expressed concern that my approach was calling for too many bonds and was concerned he would be hurt by interest rates that were sure to be rising soon. Within four weeks the market topped out and then dropped 20%. My clients, including this individual trusted my judgement and only saw a dip of 3-5% in their accounts during that period. These were all financially sophisticated, successful, level-headed people. If you honestly reflect on how you felt at those turning points in the market, you can remember people who were just as wrong about where the markets were going next. Perhaps, even you were wrong.

Investing for long term returns is NOT easy! Listening to the financial news on TV is hazardous to the health and welfare of your portfolio, plain and simple.

Only a few professional investors, and even fewer individual investors, succeed in reaching their goals in the financial markets. Everyone, even the professionals, make mistakes. What enables the professionals to succeed is having a discipline… a methodology that provides figurative guardrails to keep your portfolio on track. Individual investors have about the same odds of long-term success, as a good high school athlete does of succeeding in professional football.

What am I trying to say? Wake up! Smell the Coffee! Hire me to manage your money. At the very least, buy the PortfolioWisdom App and start comparing it’s recommendations to those of your current advisor. If you do, in six months or less, you will probably call me.

Look at your brokerage or 401k statements for the last two years… or for the last 5 years. Have you made any progress? Has the broker or advisor you use charted a wise course through the ups and downs of the markets? Did you experience an emotionally crippling portfolio loss that caused you to sell stocks at the bottom in 2008 or 2009?

We may be heading down into another crash. Please don’t go there again with your portfolio following the same strategy or advisor you did the last time.

Take care.

 

How Are the PortfolioWisdom App Users Doing?

Posted by on May 31, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 4 comments

Hey, App users? How are things going? I hope the “high” allocation to fixed income in the PortfolioWisdom App has been helping you this month! Have you noticed the way increasing equity and real asset volatility has decreased the allocation to those asset classes in the last four weeks? Please let me know if you have any questions.

Dang! Wish I had better timing on Facebook!

Posted by on May 29, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

Hello everyone, Boy was my timing off on Facebook! As a professional investor, you occasionally make judgement calls as you try to do your best for your clients. Some work out beautifully, and some, like this one, don’t work out the way you envisioned. Of course, the last chapter has not been written (this is a long-term holding), but the early returns are painful. I’m sorry this judgement call has been such a drag (approximately -0.5%) on the portfolios so far.

The good news is that I took a very small initial position (approximately 2%), so the temporary drag is very manageable relative to our long-term results. In fact, because I raised so much cash in April, 2012 (another judgement call that is going very well so far), our results for the year are still on track with the basic portfolio models, or slightly better, depending on the risk tolerance of your portfolio model. In summary, we’re still doing fine.

As of this writing, we still hold approximately 25% in cash, and I will be gradually moving that cash back into the portfolio models as previously discussed. The Facebook position will simply be part of the overall portfolio allocation to US stocks.

Hope you had a great Memorial Day…. thanks to all of those who gave their lives for our nation and our freedoms. Thanks also to the families who have born the heavy load of living with the loss of their loved ones.

We’re at a Fork in the Road

Posted by on May 25, 2012 in Dale's Market Comments, How to Build and Manage a Portfolio, Portfolio Wisdom Blogs | 0 comments

A look back, then a look forward…. As I write this post Friday morning before the market opens, 10 of 12 of the assets classes in our client portfolios are down for the Second Quarter and 4 of 12 are down for 2012. Remember when I said “I had to Laugh” back in February? People were predicting that we would see another 15% gain or more in the S&P500 from that point! This is a perfect example for my rule to pay little attention to CNBC and the financial news of the day. It often leads you in the wrong direction, my opinion. Our Balanced portfolio model has dipped approximately -2.7% from this year’s highs, while the S&P500 has dipped approximately -5.9%. Our actual client accounts have done somewhat better, because of the cash I raised back in April when I wrote that “Something Doesn’t Feel Right”.

Regarding FaceBook … I recommend you pay no attention to the media news on this subject either … it is pointing you in the wrong direction, I feel. I’ve noticed many  mainstream media stories that engender fear; fear of losing all your money; fear of missing out on the big move up. Fear sells, and the media is in the business of selling. The media is a lousy basis for forming your market opinions, unless you’ve learned to filter the news very carefully. We purchased a very small position in Facebook, and we intend to hold it for the long-term… possibly several years, so it is not a big deal in my view… certainly not as big a deal as the news stories.

Looking forward … I believe we’re at short-term fork in the road. I don’t know if we’re going to get a bounce off of the recent lows, or break through to some scary selling on wall street. Either could easily happen, based on the developments in Europe. In the big picture, we know we do not need to make predictions to make money over time. All we have to do is manage risk by responding to the behavior of asset classes according to my methodology. We are holding approximately 25% cash, and will continue moving back to full investment in the models over the next few weeks.

If anyone has questions or concerns, please give me a call. Thanks for being a part of our community!