December 31, 2020

Beginning on January 1, 2021, we’ll be making a couple of changes. We will include Emerging Markets, US small-cap stocks, and the broad Commodity Index. We will substantially reduce allocation to US Treasuries. Here’s what things will look like starting the year. Asset Class Allocation YTD 2020 S&P 500 Stocks 20.65% 16.02% US Russell 2000… Continue reading December 31, 2020

Moving Back to the Standard Methodology

Yesterday, November 2, 2020, we began to buy stocks in order to move back to the standard asset allocations calculated by our model. As you may remember, it was in February that I sold stocks and real estate because I thought the markets were not pricing in the impact of COVID at all. Three days… Continue reading Moving Back to the Standard Methodology

The Trumps Caught the Covid

No surprise that the markets sold off today after the news came out. Many big traders are trained to sell first and ask questions later. What is interesting to me is that, after the initial bounce from the opening low, stocks sold off again to even lower levels. I will continue to watch where the… Continue reading The Trumps Caught the Covid

Back to Within Spitting Distance of All-Time Highs for the S&P-500

Well my mind is officially blown. I could never have imagined getting back to these levels on the S&P-500 so quickly. I thought it might take a few years like the recovery after 2009. As further proof things are crazy, gold is up 33% YTD while US long term treasuries are up 25% YTD 2020.… Continue reading Back to Within Spitting Distance of All-Time Highs for the S&P-500

Stocks Break Overhead Resistance

Yesterday, the S&P-500 closed above resistance created at the beginning of the crash earlier this year. The Nasdaq has been reaching all-time highs for over a month now. Also, daily volatility has steadily reduced, finally falling below crisis levels in the VIX index. Accordingly, we began reducing our cash and investing into stocks, metals, and… Continue reading Stocks Break Overhead Resistance

A Sideways Week Before Memorial Day

Hello friends! Happy Memorial Day! Thanks to the generations of soldiers, airmen, Navy, Coast Guard, and Marines who have served our country so well. Well the fireworks have subsided somewhat in spite of the the disturbing news from Hong Kong, China, Brazil and Russia… oh yes! and Washington DC. I can’t tell which end is… Continue reading A Sideways Week Before Memorial Day

Take a Look at Your Portfolio

We have seen a nice bounce back from the bottom in March 2020. As of this writing, in 2020: SPY (S&P-500 ETF): -10.43%GLD(Gold ETF): +12.35%IYR (US Real Estate ETF): -17.65%TLT (Long US Treasuries): +25.04%VXF (US Russell 2000 stocks): -17.24% Wow! You mean stocks are not back to our highs? No stocks are not even back… Continue reading Take a Look at Your Portfolio

The Stock Rally Continues

After a two day pause earlier this week, stocks are finishing the week strongly. As of Friday afternoon just before the close, the SPY is trading just above 285; a level we haven’t seen for about a month. Yay! Of course, stocks are still quite a ways below the all-time highs in February just before… Continue reading The Stock Rally Continues

No, This Is Not the Bear Market Bottom … according to Richard Bernstein

Here is something from Barrons.com that might interest you:  Richard Bernstein: No, This Isn’t the Stock Market Bottom https://www.barrons.com/articles/richard-bernstein-no-this-isnt-the-bottom-51585923888 We are still 38% in cash, except for the aggressive portfolios. Other asset classes are becoming slightly less volatile. As that continues we will put more cash to work. However, if we have another big leg down in stocks,… Continue reading No, This Is Not the Bear Market Bottom … according to Richard Bernstein

Stocks Rally at the End of March

We are finishing March focused on managing risk (volatility). We avoided the worst of the crash by (for the balanced portfolios) selling all of our stocks and half of our real estate before the crash began. The timing was fortunate, but not pure luck, because I was very concerned that the covid-19 virus would cause… Continue reading Stocks Rally at the End of March