It's December 2019!

Well, Cyber Monday is tomorrow, and I wonder if the deals will be any better than they were for Black Friday. Now that people have been “trained” to spend a lot of money during this season, I can’t help wondering if many advertised “deals” are not quite that good. Hmmm.

After trailing other asset classes most of 2019, stocks are now on top for the year. Gold, silver and the miners entered an intermediate-term downtrend last week. Accordingly, we are increasing allocations to stocks and real estate; underweighting US Treasuries and gold. This market behavior reminds me of the end of 2017 when many people were calling for a recession, but the market kept chugging upward.

As I’ve written many times before, we are not in the business of predicting the market. Our methodology simply responds to recent market behavior to manage downside risk.

Have a great December!