US Stocks Near All-time Highs!

Well son of a gun! The S&P-500 is within 3-4% of the all-time highs last August. On Christmas Eve, I wouldn’t have thought that was possible. However, here we are!

On Monday, April 1, 2019, All three of our stock asset classes established intermediate (approximately 6 month) uptrends, bringing ALL of our asset classes back into the uptrend category. So, we added to the stock portions of our portfolio, investing almost all the cash, and continue to see slow, steady gains. Gold, bonds and real estate continue to climb as well, although gold has become more volatile since hitting an 8 month high recently.

One of the emotional challenges to following a methodology is that you feel “right” when things move the way you thought they might. Indulging that feeling is not too smart, though, because when the methodology disagrees with what you thought would happen, there is a tendency to avoid following the rules you so carefully researched years ago. You start evaluating what was “right” based on whether you see gains shortly after the move, rather than realizing that “right” means sticking to your discipline, knowing that you will do better in the long run.

So, even though I was surprised to see the stocks trending back “up”, I invested accordingly when our signals changed. If the trends turn down, or if volatility increases, I plan to reduce those asset classes accordingly.

Let’s see how the test of all-time highs goes over the next few weeks!

Have a great weekend.

Stock Are Almost in an Intermediate Uptrend

The S&P-500 has now climbed back to equal the highs of December and November of 2018. Quite a bounce after a 20% free-fall. There is still a ways to go to reach the all-time highs from last August, but the mathematics of our methodology are close to declaring a new uptrend for this asset class.

Today, Friday, 3/23/2019, stocks have been pulling back, perhaps because US housing purchases were much much weaker than expected. However, they could just be taking a rest after this strong bounce-back rally since Christmas. As the volatility in stocks has decreased, we’ve been gradually adding to our stock positions and reducing cash. If the upward trend materializes, we’ll add more stocks.

Gold continues its bumpy climb. After reaching about $1,350 / oz. the sellers came out and knocked it down to about $1,285. Today, though gold is hanging around $1,308, so the intermediate trend is still positive. When gold volatility spiked on the pullback, we reduced our position in gold accordingly.

There has not been much change in our allocations in spite of all the wild news, so I have not been writing as many blogs for the last few weeks. I expect the excitement to pick up over the next month or so.

Have a great weekend.

Gold Continues the New Uptrend

I just noticed today that the Gold ETF (GLD) is now at a new 8 month high. The Gold Miners ETF (GDX) is at a 12 month high. US Stocks are still hovering just above the half-way point between the all-time highs last August-September and the lows the day before Christmas. Bonds have recovered somewhat since the Fed started hinting they may stop raising interest rates for awhile. In fact, bonds have started a new uptrend.

Stock risk has dropped as volatility has dropped, so we have gradually been adding back to our stock positions. However, we are still very underweighted in stocks because they have not yet reestablished an intermediate uptrend. A quick glance at a chart over the last six months or so will show you why. Gold and bonds are still the only major asset classes in our portfolios in an uptrend.

Have a great week.

$22 Trillion – From $21 Trillion Ten Months Ago

It boggles my mind how far in debt the US is. It is even more staggering to realize the downward spiral is accelerating. It doesn’t look like tax revenues will increase to reduce the deficit. I surely don’t see enough spending cuts to balance our national budget. Good grief … all the politicians talk about is “reducing the deficit”. That’s like you and me talking about spending $5000/month more than we make instead of $8000/month more than we make. We are still going further under water every month. No talk at all about actually having a positive cash flow as a country or paying everybody back.


Sooner or later there is likely to be a huge financial “reboot” for the US dollar. Probably sooner. I don’t know anyone who actually thinks we will pay our debts.

Manage your portfolio risk accordingly. Do not be a big bond holder.


The Jury is Still Out on Stocks

It looked like the Fed’s Policy reversal last week might push stocks over the hump (the “half-way” mark of the huge drop in Q4 2018). Stocks even edged up above the 50% mark. However, the last couple of days have seen a pullback to the vicinity of that half-way point. So, the jury is still out.

There are no changes to our allocations this week. Gold continues a quiet uptrend.

Have a great weekend.

Fed Boosts Everything, Especially Stocks!

Well the Fed announcement this afternoon has sparked a nice rally in stocks. To a lesser extent, bonds and gold are rallying.

What has traders excited is the Fed reversing its prior rhetoric about continuing rate hikes because the economy is so strong. Now, they are saying that they could raise or lower rates, depending on inflation and employment. President Trump has been loudly complaining about the Fed strategy for months and should be much happier with this announcement.

Let’s see if this boost is enough to push stocks above the “half-way” point where they have been hovering.


Two Steps Forward, One Step Back for Stocks

Well, one hour before the markets close on Monday, US stocks have given back most of Friday’s gains. So, the jury is still out on which way the markets will break from this “half-way point” in the market rebound.

Fortunately, our positions in Gold and the miners continue to climb, perhaps because of the economic uncertainty that prompted the Fed to recently announce they may not be so quick to reverse all the quantitative easing performed at the behest of Mr. Bernanke and Ms. Yellen.

Time will tell.

Happy Friday, January 25th

We are seeing a nice rally today in everything but bonds across our portfolios. Gold, silver and the miners are up from 1.3% to 3.7% today.

The S&P500 is up 0.9% at this writing, so the jury is still out on which way stocks will move (up or down) from this halfway point in the recovery since the day before Christmas. Volatility is beginning to subside. . . a good sign for stocks.

We invested 10% of our cash, now holding 40% cash in our diversified, non-speculative accounts.

Have a great weekend.

Where do US stocks go from here?

We’ve had a really nice rally since the intermediate term bottom hit the day before Christmas 2018. Each time we’ve seen a morning drop in stocks, buyers have stepped in and almost always ended the day with overall gains. As of this writing on Tuesday, January 22, at 9:50 AM Central, the S&P500 index is down 1% and US Small Caps and the International Stocks are down more. We’ll see what happens.

The rally has regained about half of the big 20% drop from all-time highs last Fall, but our indicators do not show up-trends for any asset classes except gold. Accordingly, we are treating Gold as our least risky asset class … both in terms of weekly volatility and trend. Since our methodology is all about managing risk, the least risky asset class gets the highest percentage portfolio allocation.

We are at another potential turning point for US Stocks. If stocks continue rallying and enter an up-trend they will “earn” a higher allocation of our portfolios. The same goes for bonds. No changes for now.

Have a great week.