Well son of a gun! The S&P-500 is within 3-4% of the all-time highs last August. On Christmas Eve, I wouldn’t have thought that was possible. However, here we are!
On Monday, April 1, 2019, All three of our stock asset classes established intermediate (approximately 6 month) uptrends, bringing ALL of our asset classes back into the uptrend category. So, we added to the stock portions of our portfolio, investing almost all the cash, and continue to see slow, steady gains. Gold, bonds and real estate continue to climb as well, although gold has become more volatile since hitting an 8 month high recently.
One of the emotional challenges to following a methodology is that you feel “right” when things move the way you thought they might. Indulging that feeling is not too smart, though, because when the methodology disagrees with what you thought would happen, there is a tendency to avoid following the rules you so carefully researched years ago. You start evaluating what was “right” based on whether you see gains shortly after the move, rather than realizing that “right” means sticking to your discipline, knowing that you will do better in the long run.
So, even though I was surprised to see the stocks trending back “up”, I invested accordingly when our signals changed. If the trends turn down, or if volatility increases, I plan to reduce those asset classes accordingly.
Let’s see how the test of all-time highs goes over the next few weeks!
Have a great weekend.